Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to continue to cross the US$ 100 bn mark, for the third consecutive quarter in a row, amounting to US$ 111.3 bn, growing at 23%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 95.2 bn, growing at 15.8%, during the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2021-22. This compares to US$ 90.4 bn and US$ 82.2 bn of total exports and non-oil exports, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the continued global growth momentum and the resultant increase in global import demand, along with favourable global commodity prices. Total merchandise exports for the full year (i.e. 2021-22) are expected to amount to US$ 414.8 bn, growing at 42%, while non-oil exports are expected to amount US$ 353.4 bn, growing at 33%, during the same period. The growth forecast may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the current geo-political tension.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2023 (i.e. April-June 2022) would be released during the first week of June 2022.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
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Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the geo-political tension. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.