Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 108.1 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.5%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 92.1 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 5.2%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2026. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 2.3%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2026.
Growth in India’s exports could be as a result of base effect along with expected continued buoyancy in manufacturing activity supported by increased capacity utilization and congenial financial conditions, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations with several countries, and an expansionary monetary policy in India. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of higher tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty affecting global demand, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the third quarter of FY 2026 (i.e., October-December 2025) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2025.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
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For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021;
Telephone: T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 .
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in
