Exim Bank’s Forecast of India’s Merchandise Exports

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank tracks and forecasts the movement in India’s merchandise exports on a quarterly basis, based on an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

The forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports is released during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters.

Press Releases

  • Press Releases

    13-Jun-2021

    India Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for Q1 of FY2022 to amount to US$ 87.2 bn, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 78.26 bn, witnessing a robust positive growth

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  • Press Releases

    13-Mar-2021

    India Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 78.6 bn, while India’s non-oil exports to amount to US$ 73.9 bn, witnessing a positive growth

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    17-Dec-2020

    India Exim Bank forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 68.3 bn, witnessing a marginal positive annual growth

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    09-Sep-2019

    Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2020 to grow y-o-y at 0.6 percent

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  • Press Releases

    07-Jun-2019

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports and Non-Oil Exports to witness a positive growth momentum in the first quarter of FY2020 with y-o-y growth rate of 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    06-Mar-2019

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2019 to grow at 7.7 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 5.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    10-Dec-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the third quarter of FY2019 to grow at 7 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 7.2 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    11-Sep-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2019 to grow at 12.3 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 12.4 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    11-Jun-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s Total Merchandise Exports for the first quarter of FY2019 to grow at 10.6 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More
  • Press Releases

    11-Apr-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2018 to grow at 5.96 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More
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India Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for Q1 of FY2022 to amount to US$ 87.2 bn, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 78.26 bn, witnessing a robust positive growth

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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 87.2 bn, growing at 70.1%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 78.26 bn, growing at 68.5%, during the first quarter of 2021-22, as compared to US$ 51.3 bn and US$ 46.4 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The sharp rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick up in global oil prices, and strong growth in advanced economies. While the peak of the second wave of infections of the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed in India during end April-May 2021, could have subdued exports during the quarter to some extent, exports from India have nevertheless been relatively resilient.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2021 would be released during the first week of September 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai. As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and nonoil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact: Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy. 

 

India Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 78.6 bn, while India’s non-oil exports to amount to US$ 73.9 bn, witnessing a positive growth

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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 78.6 bn, growing at 4.9%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 73.9 bn, growing at 12%, during the fourth quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$ 74.9 bn and US$ 65.9 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  Consequently, aggregate exports for 2020-21 are forecast to amount to US$ 279.4 billion, witnessing a contraction of 10.8% over 2019-20. Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 256.8 billion, witnessing a contraction of 5.6% over 2019-20.The fall in India’s exports of petroleum products could be attributed largely to the global slump in demand and especially in the transportation and logistics sectors. Considering the global contraction in trade due to pandemic, Non-Oil exports from India has been resilient. Despite serious disruptions and logistical constraints exports from India have remained upbeat. 

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter April-June 2021 would be released during the first week of June 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

______________________

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311

E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in
______________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

India Exim Bank forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 68.3 bn, witnessing a marginal positive annual growth

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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 68.3 bn, witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3 percent, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive quarters of contraction.  On the other hand, total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to US$ 77.6 bn in the third quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$ 79 bn in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports, witnessed since March 2020.  The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter January-March 2021 would be released during the first week of March 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711 

E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic and the resultant slowdown. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.   

Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2020 to grow y-o-y at 0.6 percent

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to increase from US$ 81.4 billion to US$ 82 billion (with an expected growth rate of 0.6%), during the second quarter of 2019-20 viz. July-September 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).  Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2019 would be released during the first week of December 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

___________________________________________________________________________________

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

___________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies, and withdrawal of GSP by the US. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports and Non-Oil Exports to witness a positive growth momentum in the first quarter of FY2020 with y-o-y growth rate of 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to increase from US$ 81.9 billion to US$ 84.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 2.5%) and non-oil exports to increase from US$ 70.1 billion to US$ 73.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 4.2%), during the first quarter of 2019-20 viz. April-June 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).  Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2019 would be released during the first week of September 2019.

For the year 2018-19, Exim Bank, based on the ELI model, had forecasted India’s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 331.8 billion, which compares well with the official estimates of US$ 331.02 billion.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies, and withdrawal of GSP by the US. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2019 to grow at 7.7 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 5.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 7.7% (increasing from US$ 80.6 billion to US$ 86.8 billion) and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 5.1% (increasing from US$ 70.0 billion to US$ 73.6 billion) during the fourth quarter of 2018-19 viz. January-March 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter April-June2019 would be released during the first week of June 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre,
Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the third quarter of FY2019 to grow at 7 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 7.2 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 7% (increasing from US$ 77 billion to US$ 82.39 billion) and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 7.2% (increasing from US$ 66.65 billion to US$ 71.45 billion)during the third quarter of 2018-19 viz. October-December 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter January-March2019 would be released during the first week of March 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/
Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building,
Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2019 to grow at 12.3 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 12.4 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 12.3% and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 12.4% during the second quarter of 2018-19 viz. July-September 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2018 would be released during the first week of December 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre,
Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

 

Exim Bank forecasts India’s Total Merchandise Exports for the first quarter of FY2019 to grow at 10.6 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), based on its internal Export Leading Index Model,   forecasts India’stotal merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 10.6 percent and non-oil exportsto witness a growth rate of 6 percent during the first quarter of 2018-19 viz. April-June 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecastsare based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which witnessed an underlying growth of 7.5% for total merchandise exports and 7.3% for non-oil exports. Forecast of growth in India’stotal merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2018 would be released during the first week of September 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate,
Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala,
Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21,
World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY2018 to grow at 5.96 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 5.96 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017-18 viz. January-March 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The forecast, based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, was released on April 11, 2018. Based on the model (which considers 2011-12 as the base year), Exim Bank’s leading index for the country's exports, ELI came in at 113.56 for the fourth quarter of 2017-18.Forecast of growth in India’s exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December and March, for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for April-June 2018 would be released during the first week of June 2018.

The model and the forecast result has been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in merchandise exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building,
Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in