Exim Bank’s Forecast of India’s Merchandise Exports

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank tracks and forecasts the movement in India’s merchandise exports on a quarterly basis, based on an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

The forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports is released during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters.

Press Releases

  • Press Releases

    11-Sep-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2019 to grow at 12.3 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 12.4 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

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  • Press Releases

    11-Jun-2018

    Exim Bank forecasts India’s Total Merchandise Exports for the first quarter of FY2019 to grow at 10.6 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    Read More

Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2019 to grow at 12.3 percent and India’s Non-Oil Exports to grow at 12.4 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

Print

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 12.3% and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 12.4% during the second quarter of 2018-19 viz. July-September 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2018 would be released during the first week of December 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre,
Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

 

Exim Bank forecasts India’s Total Merchandise Exports for the first quarter of FY2019 to grow at 10.6 percent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

Print

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), based on its internal Export Leading Index Model,   forecasts India’stotal merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 10.6 percent and non-oil exportsto witness a growth rate of 6 percent during the first quarter of 2018-19 viz. April-June 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecastsare based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which witnessed an underlying growth of 7.5% for total merchandise exports and 7.3% for non-oil exports. Forecast of growth in India’stotal merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2018 would be released during the first week of September 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate,
Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala,
Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21,
World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in