Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 68.3 bn, witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3 percent, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive quarters of contraction. On the other hand, total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to US$ 77.6 bn in the third quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$ 79 bn in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports, witnessed since March 2020. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter January-March 2021 would be released during the first week of March 2021.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate[at]eximbankindia[dot]in/ viswanath[at]eximbankindia[dot]in
Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic and the resultant slowdown. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.
