Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports for the second quarter of FY2020 to grow y-o-y at 0.6 percent
 

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to increase from US$ 81.9 billion to US$ 84.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 2.5%) and non-oil exports to increase from US$ 70.1 billion to US$ 73.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 4.2%), during the first quarter of 2019-20 viz. April-June 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).  Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2019 would be released during the first week of September 2019.

For the year 2018-19, Exim Bank, based on the ELI model, had forecasted India’s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 331.8 billion, which compares well with the official estimates of US$ 331.02 billion.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate[at]eximbankindia[dot]in/ viswanath[at]eximbankindia[dot]in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies, and withdrawal of GSP by the US. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.