Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 5.96 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017-18 viz. January-March 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
The forecast, based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, was released on April 11, 2018. Based on the model (which considers 2011-12 as the base year), Exim Bank’s leading index for the country's exports, ELI came in at 113.56 for the fourth quarter of 2017-18.Forecast of growth in India’s exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December and March, for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for April-June 2018 would be released during the first week of June 2018.
The model and the forecast result has been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in merchandise exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building,
Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate[at]eximbankindia[dot]in/ viswanath[at]eximbankindia[dot]in
