Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 107.5 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.85%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 91.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.39%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2025. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.8%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2025. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global uncertain prospects in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the middle east and west Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in last quarter of the financial year.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2025 (i.e., January-March 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of February 2024.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
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For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311.
E: dsinate[at]eximbankindia[dot]in/ viswanath[at]eximbankindia[dot]in
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Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters, among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to growth prospects of select major trade partners, inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions, and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.